Transparency

Reproduce our number yourself

Every input is public and every formula is below. If you get a different number, we want to hear about it: that is a bug report, not a disagreement.

The formulas

instability = clamp((2.5 − WGI_political_stability) / 5 × 100, 0, 100)
inflation   = clamp(WB_inflation_pct × 3.5, 0, 100)
conflict    = UCDP intensity (0..100)

HRI = round(0.40 × conflict + 0.35 × instability + 0.25 × inflation)

verdict = green  if HRI ≤ 33
          red    if HRI ≥ 56
          neutral otherwise

// sanctions hard-cap:
if comprehensive OFAC embargo and verdict = green → neutral

Worked example: Mali

WGI political stability (raw)	-2.491	→ instability 100
World Bank inflation, %	3.2782	→ 11
UCDP conflict intensity	65	live
HRI	63	0.40×65 + 0.35×100 + 0.25×11

Where to get the inputs

World Bank WGI: api.worldbank.org · GOV_WGI_PV.EST (CC BY 4.0)
Inflation: FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (CC BY 4.0)
UCDP/GED: ucdp.uu.se/downloads (CC BY 4.0)
OFAC SDN: sanctionslistservice.ofac.treas.gov (public domain)
INFORM Risk: drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index (EU JRC)

Our own outputs, open

/data/snapshot.json (the full current snapshot for all countries)
/data/backtest.json (raw backtest results, including the ones unflattering to us)
/data/history.json (daily history, so you can score us over time)

One field in the snapshot needs explaining

If you open the snapshot you will find a pmi field, plus _live.pmi and pmiSources, flagged on 23 countries and non-zero on 18 of them. It is a leftover from a discontinued layer: an early version read public forecasts from esoteric YouTube channels through a language model and turned them into an anxiety score. We removed that layer from the product. The field is not read anywhere in the site, does not enter HRI, and does not affect any verdict, which you can confirm from the formulas above. We left it in the file rather than stripping it, because deleting numbers from a transparency export is a worse habit than explaining them.

Where AI is and is not used here →

What we do NOT claim

We do not claim to predict the future. Our own backtest (4,428 country-years) showed trend extrapolation was worse than assuming no change, so we removed it. The horizon gives you a calibrated uncertainty band and a historical probability of a verdict change, nothing more.

See the full track record →

Arxterra is for information only and is not investment, legal, tax or any other advice, an offer or a recommendation. Scores are computed from the listed sources; we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness. You make decisions yourself. Conflict data: UCDP/GED, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0); governance & economy: World Bank; news: The GDELT Project.